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"And worse, with a shattered porting market for motion control games, since motion control IS the future, third parties will drift toward the console that is cheapest to develop and has the largest install base: Wii."

Yeah, if it still doesn't happen by the time these motion devices are released, I don't think third parties will just abandon PS3/360. They would be quicker to just abandon the "hardcore" motion control games and stick to the normal controlled ones, while releasing cheap casual games, if any at all, for the motion devices.