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Squilliam on 04 June 2009
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superchunk said:
Squilliam said:

2010 will be too late, 2009 is already too late as well. The third party publishers have helped to define what role the Wii plays and what role the Xbox 360 and PS3 play in the market. The content moves to the market and the market moves to the content. What that means is that there are far more HD console FPS fans (In spite of many professing the Wiimotes superiority here) there are more WRPG fans, there are more... etc. The fans which select which market to go to have already made up their mind. Im not saying that the Wii will not make progress around the margins, im saying that the Wiis role as a whole has been mostly defined already.

Last gen had >200m consoles sold. This gen has proven to add a lot of console owners so it should easily break 250m, yet only about 100m have been sold so far, with already a very high number of multi console ownership.

As the big games show on Wii in equal or superior overall games, or as exclusives, so too will more multi-console ownership and the remaining 150m+ future console owners.

Your belittling the eventual growth of the industry. Wii will gain 50% marketshare this year and will continue to move upward in core title ownership. Its motion controls will define the control ownership as much as dual shock did in the past and NES/SNES before that.

What im saying is this:

Much of how the current console generation will play out has already been set in motion. They way forward now is not fully reliant on user experience or technology. The Wii will continue to outsell the rest of the field. However with Wii M+ Nintendo are being directly challenged, its not a free ride. Sony and Microsoft were content to not challenge the Wii until this technology appeared and then they timed their response to match.

Sony is targetting the Wii at a position centred slightly upstream from where Wii M+ exists, they want the best Wiimote clone out there, they want to best the original technically. Their goals are likely to prevent the Wii from gaining ground in their core areas and to take advantage of the Wii M+ adoption to fuel development for their own mote copy because they couldn't release a challenger until M+ appeared.

Microsoft is targetting the Wii at a position centred just below where Nintendo entered the market. They are not relying on Nintendos own actions to drive their response like Sony is, and their goal is to attack the Wii in its expanded market. Natal is closer to WiiFit than the Wiimote itself. If Sony wants the gamers and Nintendo wanted the non gamers, then Microsoft could be said to be going for the not gamers part of the market. It sounds funny and its a slightly misleading analogy, but thats the best I can think of.



Tease.