Squilliam said:
2010 will be too late, 2009 is already too late as well. The third party publishers have helped to define what role the Wii plays and what role the Xbox 360 and PS3 play in the market. The content moves to the market and the market moves to the content. What that means is that there are far more HD console FPS fans (In spite of many professing the Wiimotes superiority here) there are more WRPG fans, there are more... etc. The fans which select which market to go to have already made up their mind. Im not saying that the Wii will not make progress around the margins, im saying that the Wiis role as a whole has been mostly defined already. |
Last gen had >200m consoles sold. This gen has proven to add a lot of console owners so it should easily break 250m, yet only about 100m have been sold so far, with already a very high number of multi console ownership.
As the big games show on Wii in equal or superior overall games, or as exclusives, so too will more multi-console ownership and the remaining 150m+ future console owners.
Your belittling the eventual growth of the industry. Wii will gain 50% marketshare this year and will continue to move upward in core title ownership. Its motion controls will define the control ownership as much as dual shock did in the past and NES/SNES before that.