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I think Sony is quite conscious of the fact that a subscription fee of around $12 - $15 is going to really take away a good chunk of potential sales. So i think they will be trying hard to make this F2P or even just cheaper, maybe get the subscription fee in the $8-$9 range through a mix of in-game advertising and other venues.

Guild Wars shows that a F2P game can work, as that is successful and fun. (although i only played it for around 3 months) However, FFXIV is going to be a bigger game then Guild Wars with much more content if one uses FFXI as a gauge.