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My guess is Brawl will win. Main reason: replayability. Replayable games are keepers.

Many people will get SMG, but a portion of them will get 2nd hands.

Many people out of the Wii community are saying Wii is a casual console. But me and my friends had ran out of games to play together. The best get-together game is probably Mario Party 8, Wii Sports and Mario Kart 64. We are all waiting for Brawl and Kart and maybe Rayman 2.

On the contrary, they say Wii dun have enough hardcore games. Zelda, Paper Mario, Metriod, RE4, RE U/C, SMG, etc. There are so many of them. And I dun have enough time to finish them. And usually one copy of these games go around my group of friends. Comeon, we dun need 10 copies for 10 person.

Since most families will buy a party game each while many friends will share their hardcore games, I predict Brawl and Kart will win SMG hands down.

If you disagree, that may be because of my definition of games.
Casual:
1) Games that people play together more than they play by themselves, a.k.a. versus games.
2) Games that most people can learn and will pick up easily.
3) Games that you won't spend countless hours everyday for a week trying to complete them.
4) Games that you play and laugh at one another, enjoying the process again and again. Even if people watch without playing, it's pretty enjoyable.
5) Satisfaction is from winning other players.
6) E.g. Mario Party 8, Mario Kart 64 and Wii Sports. Brawl is here also.

Hardcore:
1) Games that people play by themselves, usually 1-player-only games.
2) Games that may be complicated for most people and has steeper learning curve.
3) Games that you will want to complete by pursuing it day after day until you complete.
4) And after completing, you probably won't touch it again. And your Wii party probably will be bored watching you completing a game by yourself.
5) Satisfaction is from completing the game.
6) E.g. Zelda and Metriod. I consider Paper Mario hardcore also because of the number of hours I spent trying to solve the clues and complete the numerous chapters. SMG is definitely hardcore.

Another point which is particular to Wii. Only versus games are getting online capabilities. Hardcore games aren't. So this could be another defining factor for casual or hardcore.

Anyway, I should be getting both of them, except that after I complete SMG, I'll lend to my friends. Brawl, keepers because I want people to play with me.

I am a casual gamer, I think =)



WW Market share prediction on 31st March 08 (I make this prediction on 13 Dec 07):

Wii - 50%

X360 - 30%

PS3 - 20%