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Natal will not kill the Wii.
I can see it being a success.

And I don't think Nintendo will ever win this E3. Simply because all the coverage is core centric and so many in that group have decided Nintendo have nothing to offer them. Even if the conference is a fairly even split between core stuff like Mario/Zelda, bridge titles like Pikmin, casual like Wii Fit Plus and more online content for Wii/DSi, people will criticise something.

Mario/Zelda isn't new! Pikmin isn't core enough! Nintendo are milking the casuals! No new IPs!!

If Nintendo have an amazing software line up, the criticism will be no Wii HD, no built in Motion Plus, no price cut or no new peripheral.

I'm hoping for a solid show with some definite future purchases for my DSi/Wii. I do not expect Nintendo to respond to their rivals because of the simple fact they never do-they do what they want, and the 'core' analysts and journos will never fully appreciate that fact.