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whatever said:
Also, if Natal hardware costs anywhere near $100, then this is going nowhere fast. They need this to get into the $50 range for there to be any significant penetration. Otherwise, devs won't risk any high budget projects working with this as there will be a very limited userbase.

Well, this could be the case.  But you could also look at it like this.  A $100 controller that at least 4 people can use at once, vs paying for 4 controllers.  Probably cost as much as upgrading 4 WiiMotes to WiiMotion+.