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If the new PSP is merely a smaller device that's DD only, I think it will cost no more than the current PSP, if not less than the current PSP, because:

1. No UMD and in general less parts means its cheaper to produce, thus they don't need to charge as much.

-and-

2. They'd want to give people an incentive to pick this model over the 3000, as they have higher margins (rather, less costs) with DD. They want to sell more games via DD than UMD, so they'd want to get more people to pick the DD-only system over their other offering.