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Well I'd say its worth it for Mass Effect alone!  both Gears of War have good campaigns, and Halo 3 is a blast for splitscreen godliness!  Fable 2 is a good fun single player game. And if you like racing, Forza and PGR series are great.

Also you can actually get xbox live silver for free...which allows you to do everything except play online.  So you can chat with friends get demos and pretty much anything else you could think of.

But wait for E3 for any possible exclusives that have great single players before you make your choice.