Nintendo could win if they do the complete opposite of what they did last year.
Sony could win if they do the same thing they did last year but with moar price cuts/games/other improvements.
Microsoft pretty much isn't going to win no matter what, even with FF13 last year they weren't the clear cut winners, so unless they can somehow top that, then they won't win. I can't see any unannounced exclusive waiting in the wings that could even come close to matching the caliber of FF13 last year, so I guess Microsoft is out of luck.
Nintendo has by far the most to prove.







