I don't think MS is going to gain much ground with the arcade pack. It's clearly targeted as a way to fight against the Wii (5 games bundled in...) as much or more than the PS3, but the people who want the Wii are looking for a totally different experience. It's costly to MS (I'd bet they are still losing on it, even though they are certainly making money off the other two) and precedent has shown it's not a popular product at all. The Core was losing out to the Premium at a $100 difference and now that they are closer it's even worse (not to mention 2 retail games is a better deal than 5 download games).
As for the two games added to the Premium. Well, Viva Pinata is pretty much a non-issue, or else it would have sold more than a quarter million in the first place. If the people who would buy 360s wanted to play games like Viva Pinata, they would. They don't, as a whole. Forza is a much better choice, but I don't like how that interacts with the recent release of PGR4 even if it isn't a harmful effect. Overall, though, the two pack-in games aren't going to be massive sellers and are a poor way to fight the PS3 overall. We all know pack-ins are nothing compared to pricecuts.
You do not have the right to never be offended.
