Squilliam said:
txrattlesnake said:
Squilliam said:
txrattlesnake said:
I agree strongly with the opening post and throw in two or three more games for Kojima, the HD exclusives that will be coming to the PS3 from Japanese third parties as the PS3 continues to sell more and more in Japan than the 360 and that will set the PS3 apart from the 360's lineup as it is now when both of them seem similar to most people, and the possibility that KH3 will come to the PS3 after the success of both FF exclusives in Japan, the PS3 is going to have a much stronger second half of this gen than its first half of this gen.
Now, its doubtful that any PS3 title is likely to match the success of the big 4 or big 5 Wii games. On the other hand, it is also doubtful that any other Wii game will match those games as well. You can show those four games and their sales, but then you can show many more and higher rated Wii games that haven't even hit a million in sales.
And I think the Wii is going to have a much harder time selling its second 50 million than it did its first. It was supposed to hit 50 million by the end of March '09 and we're almost to the end of May '09 and it still isn't there. And even though it has managed to outsell the PS3 (which beat it eleven or twelve weeks in a row in Japan this year), it's most recent Japanese sales figure is still far from impressive (it beat the PS3 in Japan last week but still sold less than 15,000 units there.)
I predict Microsoft will replace the 360 in the next couple of years. So, here are my estimates for the end of the gen.
Wii -- 100,000,000
PS3 -- 70,000,000
360 -- 50,000,000
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I predict that Sony will stop making PS3s tomorrow, take that! So LTD sales will be:
Wii -- 140,000,000
Xbox 360 - 80,000,000
PS3 --24,000,000
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Well, we won't have to wait very long to see if your prediction comes true or not.
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Well, at least I admit that mine are unlikely. 
Seriously now, 100M for Wii? A massive 28M switharound between the PS3 and Xbox 360? 70M total for the PS3? Wow, you're optimistic.
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Well part of that 28 million results from more exclusives coming to the PS3 from Japanese studios while the PS3 and 360 continue to get basically the same Western games providing an impetus for more people that want to play Japanese type games to pick up a PS3.
Since the Japanese games we've seen so far on 360 don't seem to sell that well as the console's owners are mainly western shooter fans when the PS3 / 360 divide becomes 5 or more million units for the PS3 in Japan after the release of FFXIII and GT5 over there (and possibly goes up to 7 million after FF Versus XIII) while the 360 probably won't have passed 1.5 million in Japan by then, most Japanese developers will switch almost totally to making their hd rpgs as PS3 exclusives.
The other part comes from the fact that Gears 3 will probably be a 720 exclusive and the death knell for 360 development will come about to make way for other games on the new console.
