question what happens when, if at $299 the ps3 barely outsells the 360

[dunno001]

*sighs* Okay, a quick note to the Sony fanboys claiming that the games will sell it- they won't. There was a poster who had a chalkboard and a list of games that will "save" the PS3. (Noting too, that they kept getting crossed out as they were released and didn't do what people wanted.) And they're not! They give it a boost for a week or 2, then back down to normal levels it go. So I'm going to call the software argument moot, since that's what history for the PS3 has shown us.

Now, regarding the topic, the actual price drop. I do think that Sony will drop their price before MS. But I would expect a MS price drop announcement within days afterward. (My prediction is that if PS3 hits $299, 360 will go to $149/229/299. A drop to $349 will see a response of $179/249/299.)

So what are the effects? Japan's already solidly in the PS3 category; I don't see it doing much either way there. We might see a few weeks of elevated sales, but nothing more.

The US will see a larger PS3 spike than for the 360, possibly pushing the PS3 into second (behind Wii) for no more than a month. The 360 will have a smaller spike in sales, but it won't have the same momentum as the prior one. However, the drop will see the effects of long-term sales, keeping the 360 ahead of the PS3 in weekly sales after the first month or so, but both will go back to pre-pricedrop levels by this point. Perish the thought that MS doesn't do a pricedrop, Sony might have the PS3 above the 360 for about 6 weeks. But, as with all other price drops, the temporary increase will die off, sending the PS3 back down below 360 levels on average. However, the numbers will be much closer, enough to the point where an occasional PS3 spike could cause it to outsell the 360 on a semi-normal basis.

Europe is the tough one. I really think that, with the PS3 price drop, with Europe being Sony's strong market, it'll put them neck-and-neck with the 360 longterm after outselling the 360 for about a month or 2. Again, though, if MS doesn't do the follow-up price drop, Sony will stay ahead here until they do. That will be what causes the PS3 to outsell the 360 on a regular basis worldwide. I think it will be business as normal, and if MS so wants to get Sony out of this game, they will drop the price, forcing Sony to bleed more just to stay "viable."