Punchout
1. Made by a big name developer
2. Nintendo games do well on Nintendo consoles
3. Fans have been starved for a high profile Nintendo game since 08
4. Very little competition
5. Nostalgia
Conduit
1. FPS
2. Little competition
3. Lots of hype
4. Fans have been starved for a good 3rd party exclusive
Punch out wins easy. Conduit isn't a cross demographic kind of game. Also HVS isn't a big well known developer.
Conduit 1 to 3 million. My estimate is 1.5 million
Punchout 3-5 million. My estimate is 3 million.
95% of gamers don't know they are noobs, the 5% who do won't be noobs for long
Check out my kickstarter project: http://kck.st/15CEuUT
Check out my blog: http://www.metropolisgaming.com