I've just entered the Prediction League

[johnlucas]

I've decided to put my rep where my mouth is and play Nostradamus with the end of the year World Sales Total thru December.

Now granted the only number I'm dead certain about is Wii. I don't like to predict when the vision is not clear. I only entered to prove my Wii number right. I was forced to enter the rest of the information so I took an educated stab at it.

Here are my figures:

Microsoft XBox 360: Approx. 13 million

Sony PSP: Approx. 25 million

Sony PS3: Approx. 7 million

Nintendo Wii: AT LEAST 20 million

Niintendo DS: Approx. 60 million

Now I KNOW folks will balk at those numbers but let me explain how I came up with them.

•XBox 360 moves but moves SLOWLY. Its best regions are USA/North America and Australia. Which means for sales that those numbers must move in USA/NA to make a significant jump in the charts due to pure population density. It may pick up in a Japan a little but that system will most likely always remain a novelty there for those who dare to be different. So Japan will not make a difference. In the other PAL regions and Europe XBox 360 is still more of an outsider and has to uproot Sony who despite all its problems still has some presence there.

XBox 360's price stalls it on the shelves believe it or not and a price cut may give a boost. Big Halo 3 is on the horizon and that will give it a holiday jump. But seeing as how slow it moves through the year so far (it's been in 9 million range for 4 months already!) its jumps will be when those big blockbusters come out and if the price jumps. I see it nearing 14 million at best case but I see it getting stuck at 13 mill plus fractions resulting in my approx. 13 million prediction.

 

•The PSP made a great stand for Sony's first handheld but that fight is lost. Software boosts make great cameo appearances on the Japan sales charts but they don't move hardware enough to made great strides. PSP's price drop makes things sweeter but most people who want this system already have it and the others are not interested. PSP sells steady with a few big games to push it along making it hit the approx. 25 million mark since it's at practically 21 million now. At best it may smell the 26 million mark.

 

•I don't want to be a spoiler but the PS3 has lost the fight. The European/PAL region was their last chance to pull the project back to health and it looks to be falling apart. Price cuts will only give anemic boosts; remember that strategy didn't save the cheapo Gamecube. And price cuts will be hard to come by with the way this whole project has been set up. My approx. 7 million mark was actually optimistic. I see them just barely clearing the 7 mil bar making it a 7 mil below 7.25 million at best. They will trickle in the sales slowly but surely & steadily making a 7 million. But I could be wrong. It might be less! The poor sales will drive the 3rd party exodus taking Metal Gear Soid 4 with it (people don't believe me on the MGS4 thing). Sales will be trickling in all year & I used XBox 360's last-year's sales marking as a guide to measure by.

 

• You ALL know my stance on the Wii's year-end worldwide sales.AT LEAST 20 Million sold by the end of the year. People somehow think Nintendo can't get the production up like that. The demand will be crazy all year long picking up EVEN MORE once Holiday season gets near. Everybody will want to gift someone they know with a Wii. Plus the blockbuster games that will be coming out for the "core gamers" (Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3, etc.) to the "new breed" (Wii Health Pack, Wii Music). And Nintendo will have lots of supporting library from the 3rd parties by that time. Nintendo will pick up the production rates to prepare for the Christmas-time & they are already selling a million a month now. Around September this number will begin to double as certain games released bring in new fans, fortify old fans, and CONVERT some of the doubters. That's right all those complainers will be changing their tune towards the end of the year when a certain title comes out. Mark my words; 20 million is the LOWEST estimate on what this system will bring in.

 

•DS tends to move 100,000 to 200,000 a week in Japan alone and its other regions sales are strong as well. Certain games come out it's doomsday. I remember seeing that figure jump up to 500,000 one week when a certain blockbuster was let out of the gate. Dragon Quest IX is just one of many titles (Zelda: Phantom Hourglass) that will make a monster jump in the hardware sale rates. I divided 40 million by 2.5 to stand for the years it has been out. But then I decided to convert that 2.5 into seasonal terms "quarters" .5 would equal 2 seasons and the big 2 would equal 8 seasons (4 seasons in a year). So that gave me 10 seasons which made a neater number to divide by. That would be 4 million a season. I know the rates weren't even all through the system's lifespan but this is what I used as a measuring stick. We're roughly two season to go in this year which would add 8 million. But THEN I added in the "hot game" factor & the "Holiday Season" factor also remembering that DS sales spiked seriously in the past year when DS became DS Lite. The figure 60 million is the estimate I came up with also remembering that this system was on its way to being the best selling handheld of all time. It would be 3 years on the market at the end of the year so 60 million felt like a nice figure to settle on. But who knows it could go higher.

 

The only number I'm dead sure of is Wii's number, the rest of these were deductional educational guesses. We'll see if those turn out right too.

Thoughts? Comments?

John Lucas