Alright... it's time to shout!
Here is the sales data from VGC for the METAL GEAR FRANCHISE for the year ending 31st March 2009 (actually ending 3rd April, but it will tie in)
This may give us some indication as to what could have been shipped OTHER than MGS4.
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MGS4 (PS3) - 3,894,844
MGS Essential collection (PS2) - 153,049 (Americas data only)
MGS3: Snake Eater (PS2) - 62,280
MGS3: Subsistance (PS2) - 23,246 (Japan and America only)
MGS:PO plus (PSP) - 147,118 (Japan and America only)
MGS:PO (PSP) - 31,243 (Japan and America only)
MG Acid 2 (PSP) - 11,020 (Japan and America only)
MG Acid (PSP) - (couldn't be bothered as it sold very little
As you can see, even with a good deal of missing Others region data... there are significant sales to some games..... The ones I highlighted in blue I am sure there have been sufficient sales to warrant an extra shipment... while the ones in bold I am uncertain of, or will depend on what they sold in "others"
With only the American data to go on, the Essential Collection for the PS2 will have needed a decent sized shipment after the first one. If we estimate PAL sales to be similar or a little higher than American sales (which they seem to be with most MGS games) and Japan sales at about 30-50% of them, then the Essential Collection probably sold about 400,000 units in that year..... not all of those will have been shipped in the year of course, as I believe shipments of games like that probably go in bulk, but given the timing of the release, probably ~300k were shipped during the year.
MGS Portable Plus is the second highest game, missing PAL data, it probably sold over 200k during the year, depending on Konamis shipment schedules, it could have needed anything from 50k - 150k shipped in the year.
The black bolded titles I am unsure of their need to ship anything, but they could account for something.... so 0-75k for them combined.
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So shipments of non MGS4 games could easily account for 450k of that 4.75 million.... that leaves 4.3 million for MGS4, and VGC stated it sold 3.9 million.... it's not a huge discrepancy, and it could be smaller.
