Garcian Smith said:
Console wars are, for the most part, decided before the first year is over. Nobody can beat the Wii now. It's outselling the other two by a long shot. |
I wouldn't say it's impossible quite yet. The Wii is an unprecedented phenomenon, which definately rules in the the likelihood of an unprecedented future. That could be success, or the bottom dropping out, or something else entirely.
With roughly 150 million consoles sold last gen (discounting a few for faulty consoles), less than 20% of the market has been tapped, and that's probably a low estimate as the market has grown with each generation. The difference between the Wii and 360 is less than 1% of that, and the PS3 needs to only make up about 8% to get back into the thick of things.
Now, do I believe that this will happen? No, simply because momentum will carry the consoles in their present state for at least another 6 months before anything really changes (if anything the holiday and price cuts will accelerate the current trends). But is it possible that the Wii market drops out next Christmas? Sure. That the 360 is all anti-climax after Halo3? I suppose. That the PS3 can finally find the magic game-price combo to bring back a legion of PS2 owners? Sure.
