At the earliest I see MS pushing a price drop the week before Thanksgiving. Personally, I don't see them dropping the price at all unless they're confident that ATI can get their fabs to 65nm shortly thereafter (clearing out shelves for cheaper units to follow Christmas). With RRoD rumors persisting, they're probably very anxious to get that GPU to 65nm.
If they don't drop the price before the holidays, expect them to drop right before GTA IV hits.

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