| austin2359 said: Those who buy a ps2 this late in the game will probably buy a ps3 too, late in the game. |
Only if the software is the same. The PS2 developed the “everyman’s library” once it became clear that it was the default platform for casual and core gamer alike. However, the PS3 currently isn’t developing the same library… primarily because software developers have another choice that they didn’t have before: the Wii. If the Wii becomes more profitable for casual game developers in the near future, then what we *could* see is the Wii having the long tail this generation of hardware instead of the PS3.
Unlike the PS2, the PS3 and the Xbox 360 primarily cater to the core market (which also explains why their sell-in numbers are half that of the Wii). With this generation of hardware reaching its half-life, it’s unlikely that the core and casual gamer markets will shift much, if at all, in the next 3 years… no matter whatever price drops occur. For all intents and purposes, the “positions” of the hardware race are pretty much fixed at this point. Any move one hardware manufacturer makes to gain marketshare, its competitors can easily counter to keep them in place.
What we’re likely to see five to six years from now are shoppers who would pick up the PS2 today, picking up a Wii.
