The PS3 won't make it past 2012 in America at retail.

[Lord N]

HappySqurriel said:

The unfortunate thing for the PS3 lasting past the begining of the next generation is that it is easier to design a cost effective product from scratch than it is to reduce the price of the product. We're already past the point in the generation where a company could release a more powerful gaming system than either the PS3 or XBox 360 and sell it for $300 without losing money; and as time goes on the potential "next generation" system will become less expensive and more powerful, and by 2012 the gap between the capabilities of current consoles and next generation consoles will be large.

Now, I think what plays the biggest role on the long term health of both the PS3 and XBox 360 is the fact that they're "Tied Together" and 90% of all games released for one platform are released for the other. If this continues for the next couple of years (which seems likely) and one/both of the HD consoles is replaced, it is likely that both the XBox 360 and PS3 will face a pretty large blow to their support and their ability to survive past 2012

To add to this, the 360 won't last past 2012 either, because by then, its successor will be released. Most of the 360's fanbase are core and hardcore gamers, and these gamers aren't going to stick with what by then will be a last gen console. They're going to jump right to the 720(or whatever its called).

The PS1 and PS2 were able to survive well into the next generation because they had such broad appeal that there were still plenty of casual/budget gamers out there who were more than willing to pick them up rather than head to the next generation, but this won't be the case for the 360 when the nextbox is released.