| kn said: I think 8 of your top 9 on your "outside chance" are pretty much no brainer 1M+ worldwide sellers... Also keep in mind that you have million plus sellers over the last 2 years with a slowly increasing base. I expect the 360 to push at least as many consoles out the door as they did last christmas -- 2+ million.... The number of million sellers is only going to increase as the install base increases and getting there will happen faster... |
Maybe I should reorder for 'Outside Shot' and 'Good Shot'... I think I will.
However, I don't think any of the ones in the outside shot area now are no-brainers. I see possible hiccups for all of them. Of those, these seem the most likely:
The Orange Box
Ninja Gaiden 2
Dead Island
Alan Wake
Too Human
UT3
Rock Band
Burnout Paradise
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
Devil May Cry 4
... but all of those have something that keeps me from pulling the trigger:
Ninja Gaiden 2 has a huge fan base, but its difficulty has kept it from being an astronomical seller. We'll see if that's adjusted.
The Orange Box seems like a certainty, except I'm unsure whether its '5 games in 1' package might confuse the average consumer. The box art makes it look like a cheap collection of games instead of 5 amazing and complete titles. Personally, I think they should have released Team Fortress 2 as a separate title, and Portal as an Xbox LIVE game.
Dead Island looks awesome and has a great concept... but it's an unknown quantity and a new IP. Could be Bioshock or could be forgotten in a week.
Alan Wake is jaw-dropping, but its genre might hinder sales.
Rock Band has everything going for it -- hype, marketing, and a popular genre. However, its price due to all the peripherals may be prohibitive.
Burnout Paradise seems like a likely million seller, but there's so many racing games coming out, it might get lost in the shuffle.
Too Human is a complete mystery. There's so much drama about the game that it's hard to tell what's real and what's hype.
UT3 looks amazing, but it has always been a PC-oriented series. It also does not have the 'main character' factor that other huge FPS games have had -- there's no Marcus Fenix or Master Chief, just random PCs killing each other.
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed again looks amazing. However, only the KOTOR and Battlefield games have really had 1 million copy success on consoles lately. The Jedi Knight series, which this game most closely resembles, has not yet achieved it.
Devil May Cry 4 is also a mystery. The Devil May Cry games have had a wild varience in the amount they sell. I can see it selling a million, easy. I can also see it puttering out at 300,000.
