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I don't know, I believe that no backwards compatibility just means that they've taken out the GS (PS1 chip) and are now running everything through software emulation.

To back that up, they removed the EE (PS2 chip) for PAL PS3's and have now extended that cut to the North American 80gig SKU. I also recalled somebody at Sony (maybe Harrison?) saying that they were interested in moving towards full software compatibility.

Thus, this makes me believe that the 40gig PS3 will still have backwards compatibility, but the percentage will be lower than the 60 and 80gig PS3's because now both the EE and GS have been removed so there could be some problems on some PS1 games now rather than just PS2 games.