Predict First Week Sales for EA Sports Active

[radioioRobert]

I think we all know this title is going to sell. I believe EA is going to have a big hit week 1 with this, even though the other non-Wii Fit titles have all started off slowly and picked up momentum (or legs) and seem to all be selling well. Even Ubisofts port of 2006's Yourself Fitness (on Wii called My Fitness Coach) is coming up on a million in sales in the next week or so. Ubisoft other port (called Gold Gym's Cardio Workout) shows no sales here, but it is consistently in the top 10 VG's sold on Amazon, and has been selling pretty steadily at my local stores (I asked about it at Walmart, Target, Toys R Us and Gamestop.

I have seen fliers for Ea Sports Active at Target, Walmart, Toys R Us and Gamestop. It has the Oprah touch as well, with endorsements and commercials about it from Bob Green, Oprah's fitness guy. Wii Fit was on Ellen, but I don't believe it was ever on Oprah, which guarantees massive sales.

Though software like this (non Wii Fit fitness "games") normally sell slow and steady, the Gamestop I frequent has almost 200 preorders for it, which I found pretty surprising. This is the same Gamestop that I bought Wii fit from on launch day, and they didn't have enough to fill their 250 preorders at the time. Wii Fit sold  730 k launch week in America with SEVERE supply constraints. Nintendo also had the heavy media hype train in it's favor as well.

I'm assuming EA will not have the supply constraint, but will be lacking the large amounts of press Wii fit got, so how will it sell?

I believe EA Sports Active will debut with sales of at least 250k, though if it starts showing up on the Today show, Oprah, and Good Morning America in the next week or so, who knows. If they advertise on The Biggest Loser for next weeks finale I think the sales will be even higher. If this software is a really well thought out effective fitness product (which looks probable), I think it will easily reach lifetime sales of over 3 million, and has the potential to sell 5 million.

What are your predictions for first week, and lifetime sales?