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I always think that the taper off idea is remarkably stupid because the industry can not produce such an outcome ...

Sales of the PS3 have been poor so far and will look awful after the holiday season 2007; this will result in third party publishers reducing exclusive support for the PS3, and not allocating PS2 development teams towards the PS3 as projects are completed (most likely that support will move towards the Wii). In 2008 the Wii will have another banner year whilst the PS3 continues to struggle; this will in turn cause a further shift towards the Wii.

Magically in 2009 (when the PS3 becomes an affordable system) people are going to start buying the PS3 and ignoring the Wii when most of the major third party games are being released for the Wii?

The first 18 months are critical for producing a large userbase in order to have third party confidence so that you have the important games on your system later in life.