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One thing to consider is analysts have a very strange way of including data which isn't very important ...

If you read some of their reports they will make assumptions like "15 Million people will buy the PS3 in the first 12 months because of its strong brand" which are generally not true. This is why there are analyst reports that state that the PSP would have a strong worldwide lead by the end of 2006 even though the opposite was actually true.