Lifespan of the Wii?

[davygee]

Right folks, I want your feedback and opinions on how the Wii will pan out over the course.

It's pretty obvious that the Wii has started very strongly, so much so that demand outweighs supply. 6.5m Wii have been sold so far, only 5 months after it's release and there seems to be no stopping it....or is there?

The PS3 having been released at the same time (apart from Europe) has sold only half the number of Wii's. This isn't surprising to say the least, seeing as the Wii in the UK comes in at an affordable £180 whereas the PS3 is now selling for £400.

Then there's the 360. Now this is a wierd one. It's a good machine, it's pretty cheap considering, there are quite some number of great looking games out for it, but sales have started to slump. It's been on the market 12 months more than the Wii and the PS3, and has managed to get near 10m sales worldwide, but it's a disaster in Japan and it's niche seems to be NA more than any other at the moment.

Anyway, back to the Wii, how long can it last? Well I get the feeling that it won't be around for too long. Now saying that, I don't mean that it will bomb this year or next, but over the course of 3 years, demand IMO will seriously slow down. Why? I hear you ask. Well it's just one of those things. The Wii has intentionally been created to be significantly less powerful than both the 360 and PS3; in fact, the Wii is only slightly more powerful than the PS2 and Xbox and this will become more noticeable over the next few years. One other setback will be the graphic resolution. Stuck to 480p (what the PS2, Xbox and DC have been displaying for years) will be another setback for the console. People are buying HDTV's in their droves. I now know few people with SDTV's anymore (myself being one of the few) and you can get a 720p LCD for under £500 and before anyone says it....yes it is noticeable between 480p and 720p. Blu-Ray and HDDVD players will start to come down in price, people are getting more into HD and people expect more.

The Wii will sell loads though and I predict that they will sell around 16m units worldwide by the end of the year, but we will see a reduce next year and a huge reduction the following year. The 360 has already started to slow down in sales and IMO the Wii will have more sales this year than the 360 by the year end. The PS3 has had a slow start and this will continue until Sony reduce the cost. This I feel will happen this year, but sales of the PS3 will grow steadily from the end of this year through the next 3-4 years.

The bottom line is this. The Wii seems like a great console for the now, but it does and will have limited appeal over the longer term. So all in all, I see the Wii having a great 2007, a decent 2008 and a poor 2009 with sales being extremely low come 2010. So a 3-4 year lifespan IMO is on the cards.

So folks, what's your thoughts?