| gergroy said:
Ok, I have bolded the areas of your argument that are faulty. First of all, games like halo and gran turismo don't adhere to this 40% first week rule. Halo 3 will probably end up selling at least 11 to 12 million and it sole 3 million the first week. The big games out their keep selling as people buy into the system. So as more people buy 360's, the number of halo 3's sold will keep going up. Also, review scores can have an effect on game sales, ever heard of bioshock? Game got perfect reviews, but when it hit stores it hit in small amounts because retailers weren't expecting a big demand for it. I work at best buy and I remember there being an internal memo about how the unexpected review scores had increased demand and they were doing all they could to get more copies. Also, look at too human, reviewed terribly, but it was one of those high anticpated exclusives but the sells didn't pan out because it got such terrible reviews. What surveys are you talking about, I have never heard of any. I also remember there being a lot of talk of people being dissapointed with the game when it came out. I think the lower review score speaks for itself here, you are just trying to throw your opinion in as fact. Same with Majora's mask, I don't know a single person that likes majora's mask better than OoT. FF7 and FFX never stopped selling, so they actually had the Same install bases as XII, or at least X does. In fact, I can go into best buy right now and go buy FFX. So it just boils down to which game is better. Also X has benefited from quite a bit more years in the budget price range. Thank you for making my point. MGS3 had no advertising, which equates to lower sales. Which makes your whole point of using them as examples moot. Gran Turismo games have always been heavily marketed, which is one of the factors to their incredble sales, same with halo. As far as the install base, I'm curious how you gather that the core audience actually decreases when the number of systems increases. Do they all just throw their ps2's away when somebody else goes and buys a new system? Ok, the fact of the matter, by having a larger install base you are increasing the chances of growing the core audience. Say 1 out of 10 gamers in america like FPS games. Every 10th person that buys a 360 or ps3 grows that core audience. New people that buy systems have game preferences just like everybody else. What you are basically saying is after the first 15 million game systems sold, the number of games that sells will always stay the same, because install base doesn't matter. So why do they even still sell the ps3? Lets just get rid of the hardware because the games are where all the profit is anyway. They are going to selling the same number of games anyway, so why sell new ps3's? Such a stupid argument.
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Halo 3 sold 4 million it's first week, according to VGChartz. It actually sold 4.5 million it's first week, VGChartz has 2 days cut off, they only tracked first 5 days, the rest of it's first week was carried over to "week 2". 4.5 million is around the 40% mark for 11 million. You should probably actually search things up.
Did a quick search, bunch of polls done, aparently around 30-40% in every poll agrees majoras was better. OoT was using the same formula, 2 worlds like from link to the past. It was basically a copy. It has a much more varried style of play, the story was unique unlike the tried and true story they always use.
Same install base? Wow, not touching that with a 50 foot pole.
MGS3 was widely accepted and was not critized. MGS2 was a ploy by kojima to get girls to start playing it. He even said it, he wanted a character "girls" would love. Raiden was born. MGS3 finally comes back, and unlike 2 which only had 1 enviroment, mgs3 had several, and the most detailed jungle "simulator" to date. It also had a 20 million dollar ad campaign.
Core audience does not change much, it constantly changes. This has been shown time and time again. We normally state "Early adopters" as core, but the fact is, people who buy a console within first 2 years are the core, per genre. Not getting into it though, search it up.
Also flawed. If 1 out of 10 people like FPS games, and the console is mainly for FPS, like the 360 is, then more people in the 10% will buy that console. Put it this way. Console deals with FPS games. Now say you have a possiblity to sell 1 million consoles, and knew exactly 10% of the audience loves FPS games. When big name FPS games come out, or the console, 50 thousand people from the 10% that loves FPS buys it, while only 150 thousand others buy it. Now there is still 800 thousand people left to buy it. Is it still 10% of that audience is into FPS? No, it decreased by half.
Core audiences adopt as early as possibly, however people we normally call "casuals" wait for price to come down etc the core buys it when it can, they don't wait. Over the years, core audience drops faster then it builds, though stays pretty steady, not that a core audience can't grow, it normally doesn't. Unlike you, I say, "usually" and "probably", meaning not an absolute.
