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Well Sony said they would sell 6 million units by March 07. M-maybe they should focus on selling those first.

Besides it's again Sony PR: sales rise expentially around christmas, last year the XBox sold 2,5 million units in that time. So it is easy to state that you will reach you're opponents sale right before sales begin to boost.
On the other hand, even if they sell 3 million in december it would still have to sell as good as the Wii now to reach that 11 million. And probably MGS will be pushed till after march to make '08 sales look better.

I think Sony's analysts should stop using motion controls to enter their data, but on the bright side: at least something will rumble next year :).