Does anyone else think downloadable games will be fully supported next-gen?

[NJ5]

Kantor said:

NJ5 said:
@CHYUII: I think Steam contradicts your point that retailers need a hand in the downloadable system. In fact Steam works very much like the idea I presented (you can still find most/all Steam games at retail stores).

That's because Steam is, essentially, a retailer. Valve takes a cut of the revenue from all purchases.

OT: Well personally, I like physical collections. That way, if the hard disk malfunctions, I don't lose everything. I think your idea would be very expensive, and probably not worth it. They would have to get the bandwidth to allow (by next gen) 50 GB games to be downloaded in anything less than 10 hours. They need to upload the stuff onto there. When games are getting larger and larger, it doesn't make sense to have digital distribution for proper retail games. It's just not convenient.

I think CHYUII meant physical retail stores (and my reply was based on that), so let's not make the thread more confusing.

On your other point, I think such big games will be the exception rather than the norm due to development costs. BTW Steam has a great solution to that, you can download games before they're released, and when the release date arrives the game gets decrypted and unlocked.

But let's take a 50 GB game anyway... to download 50 GB in less than 10 hours you just need a 11 Mbps connection, which you'll be able to get even in the form of mobile broadband by the time the next generation arrives. Of course this is mostly for developed countries and most importantly places with good broadband, which is where a lot of gamers are anyway.

Squilliam said:
The current console market conditions are:

$180 Xbox 360 selling for $200 (10% margins)

To sell a console which relied 100% on direct downloads.

~$150 Xbox 360 selling for $200 (33% margins)

Xbox 360 used as the example.

The retailers would probably demand higher margins on consoles which allowed direct downloads. (Remember you're cutting their margins)

True, but I don't think that will be a big problem.