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I think Microsoft would be looking at unannounced titles like LA NOIRE, maybe Red Dead, and perhaps ninja theory's next game. I'm sure they'll have lost planet and Mass Effect remain timed exclusive, maybe dead rising 2 as well. I think Bioshock 2 is not out of the question, but very unlikely. Maybe they bought Bethesda/Epic's next project?  Doom 4 maybe?

If they took MW2 exclusive they would piss A LOT of people off, I dont think activision/IW would do that, it's not going to happen. I think Activision has plans to keep milking the franchise every year for money, and leaving out a PS3 version for a year would only hurt the franchise they're trying to milk for the years to come.

Odd's are Microsoft doesn't have anything shocking we weren't expecting at e3, unless it's a slim 360. We'll probably see KI, Forza 3, alan wake, as well as more lost planet 2/mass effect 2. It's in no way obvious Microsoft stole a PS3 exclusive.