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Well there are rumors sony is buying a lot of 40 gig HDD's. But I have no idea why people think it will be for US or even why there should be a $399 price tag on it. If it comes, it would be very likley Japan (the territory the 20 gig is still on sale!). Why not do a 40 and a 80 gig for Japan without EE (-->lower the production price)?  And even if the 40 gig is comming to NA, why not for $499 to replace the 60 gigs. These should be sold out in end of october/begin of november?

I think Sonny will cut the price (in US) in march. By then, they will have actually content to back a price cut up! In Europe it may come before Christmas, but I wouldn't bet on it.