| HideoK said: At the end of this generation it will be difficult to really compare b/c I believe (just like the Xbox) the Xbox 360 support will end early in light of a new console coming out first, perhaps a whole year ahead of the competition again. MS could stop selling the console after a year to force its fan base to buy the new hardware. On that note it would it be more fair to determine a 'relative' winner based on how many years the console was selling on the market? So Xbox is heading towards 4 years (this Nov 22nd) PS3 is heading towards 3 years (this Nov 11th Japan, 17th US) Wii is heading towards 3 years (this Nov 19th). So if you think about it the PS3 has a chance of coming in 2nd place. Sony would have an extra year later down the road when the price of the console will be more in line with a 360 price point of $199.99. The extra year could start ticking once MS stops selling 360. This could give us our 'relative' winner based on number of years on the market. I believe this will crown the Wii victorious. Then Xbox 360. Then PS3. These two will be very close I believe. Would that be a fair assessment? Can we give the PS3 the advantage any further than a year to compare if it stays on the market for another 3-5 after MS stops selling? I believe the additional years could count toward the 'final' winner of this generation. As long as one console from this generation in STILL selling at RETAIL and that console eventually ends up on top, then that console can be declared the 'final' winner of this generation. There is no question PS2 was the 'final' winner of last generation the moment Xbox and GameCube stopped selling. It's amazing the PS2 continues to sell nearly 9 years after its launch. Therefore, I think its a good sign for PS3 when it hits the $99 price point on year 9 or 10. PS4 will have some tough competition within the Playstation family on its launch too! My prediction for the 'final' winners of this console generation is: 1. Wii 2. PS3 3. Xbox 360 Again, I have the 'relative' winner (based on years on the market) Wii in 1st with 360 in 2nd place. PS3 in third. Wii will probably sell close to as much as the PS2 did and will likely remain on the market for 10 years also making it nearly impossible for PS3 to catch up. The PS3 would have to sell for 15-20 years as long as people are still willing to buy it and Sony can make money. How about a $19.99 slimline PS3 blu-ray player anyone? I know I would buy a couple more at this price if Sony could afford to sell it  |
Well, that is making a couple of assumptions which I'm not certain can be made ...
Support for the XBox dropped off so quickly after the release of the XBox 360 because the original XBox could not be manufacturered anymore (due to licencing issues) and most games that were under development for the XBox could be released on the PS2 or ported to the XBox 360 (and in many cases both) and remain viable. From my (limited) understanding Microsoft was far more careful about licencing agreements than they were with the XBox, and so many HD console games are multi-platform because they need to be released for both platforms in order to justify the development costs ... As long as the PS3 is on the market it is highly likely that the XBox 360 will share the bulk of third party games with the PS3.
At the same time, the release of the XBox 360 didn't seem to have much of an initial impact on the market-leading PS2 but it did seem to have a huge impact on the Gamecube. There are two reasons for this, there are finite development resources and reshuffling resources towards a new console tends to come at the expense of the lowest selling consoles on the market, and many selling features (like advanced graphics or Blu-Ray playback) can often be dramatically improved upon in the "Next Generation" console at a very affordable price ...
In other words there is nothing that is saying the release of the next XBox system would have a dramatically worse impact on the support that the XBox 360 receives in comparison to the PS3, and there is nothing saying that the PS3 wouldn't see a decrease in sales.
