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Only thing is either Nintendo's next console is completely compatible with the Wii (meaning its games will still play on the Wii at 720x480p) or they run the very real risk of being their own worst competition.

A very sizable chunk of the Wii audience won't bother buying a new console just because it's by Nintendo. Unless there is something very compelling, like a second lighting strike re-imagined simpler, more accurate, more realistic user interface, it won't see the instant runaway success of the Wii.

HD resolutions and integrated motion plus alone won't cut it to the average consumer who doesn't buy every console they can afford to including minor refreshes.

Either they support two consoles simultaneously and watch as the Wii continues to maintain its market share, or they kill the golden goose in the interest of pushing their new platform. I don't see that happening.

$250-299 for the new console vs. $99-149 for the Wii?

Otherwise, the Wii remains Nintendo's sole console along the lines of the original NES in terms of length of time in production with 3rd party support, despite using the most aged hardware standards (support continued to hold up well even after the release of the Genesis and TG16).

About the only thing that could upset this model is a drop in third party support if too many developers attempting to sell dumbed down softs to the Wii audience (unprofitably) go under. This seems unlikely given the current (growing) support for the DS, still home to some of the very best and many of the very worst titles available.