50% market share thread

[greenmedic88]

Right now believing in a 60% marketshare for the Wii is about as optimistic (and realistic) as the now infamous 60 million by year end 2008.

A $100-150 price on the Wii is about the only thing that will see a significant jump in percentages, which won't happen until sales hit at least two plateaus and production outstrips demand.

Reliance upon killer apps for the Wii you say? Due to the differences in markets, most games for the Wii tend not to be front loaded which has the double edged effect of not moving an excess of consoles during a launch, contrary to front loaded big releases on other platforms. Kart, Wii Fit and Brawl are among the few titles that buck this trend and there are no forthcoming titles announced yet guaranteed to be added to this top of the charts list. Not Zelda, not Metroid and not Mario, which have all had appearances this generation already. Wii Music doesn't even merit a mention, but since some actually thought it would be Nintendo's next huge hit...

To put it simply, barring any other Wii Fit type game that "reinvents" user interface and the common perception of what games can be to the mass consumer, there won't be any games that move a significantly greater number of consoles than normal.

Wii Sports Resort/Motion Plus, while theoretically delivering what many gamers thought they were getting with the original Wii Remote, won't matter significantly to those still sitting on the fence for the purchase of a Wii. Most won't be able to tell the difference between the Resort Motion Plus experience and the "now obsolete" Wii Sports experience.

Most Wii owners still haven't figured out that the Wii currently doesn't have actual 1:1 motion controls or what that even means. Virtually all don't even care barring the very small minority who feel hoodwinked by the as of yet unrealized initial promise of the Wii experience (ie. light saber duels in real space - Wii Kendo).

It is however, guaranteed to sell like Wii Play in that almost everyone who bought a Wii enjoyed Wii Sports.

And it's looking like that 50% number that most (myself included) predicted would happen by the end of Q1 2009 hasn't happened, and may not happen during Q2 either (which just about everyone else predicted).

But for all intents and purposes, Nintendo has half the console market, and despite that, there have been no additional benefits to Nintendo gamers who have no more leading edge titles than they did when everyone rushed to jump onboard the Wii success story, mostly with quick titles of very dubious quality.