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The Wii still has untapped potential:
No price drop
No new colors
No refresh (if there is like DS > DSL > DSi)
Not all 1st party games (Kirby, a Wii exclusive Zelda) have been released
No Wii-Motion plus yet (not sure if this will help or not)

I think Wii will win and I hope it wins (go Nintendo!) but hey time will tell.