Spazgadget said:
Ah, but there's a big difference between UMD and Hi definition formats. UMD was just a crappy format. It had fewer features, could only be viewed on a 3" screen, and ran your PSP's batteries down at lightning speed. Blu-Ray has challenges, but I don't think you can compare UMD to Blu-Ray in terms of chances of success.
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I brought up UMD because people tend to be overly optimistic by early performance of these types of formats.
The reason I was saying I anticipate that HD-Movie growth will stall is that less than half of houses have HDTVs currently and few people expect it to break that boundry until 2010/2011; at the same time there will be a large portion of the HDTV buying public who bought their TV because it was a flat-panel display. I expect that at some point (I'd say roughly 25% of the DVD marketshare) these formats will need people of modest income to replace their TV and buy a HD-Movie player in order to continue their growth; something that may happen but at a very slow pace.
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