Of your criteria, only the former has any real impact on anything. The latter is just how customers of the incumbent market see it, and quite frankly, customers of incumbent markets are notorious for giving into disruption instead of persistently resisting it.
All that said, while the current incumbent market is prone to pick 360 or PS3, much as the incumbent market of the 1980s was prone to favor the Commodore 64 and the Amiga, the market will favor the Wii and its eventual same-value successor as market leader in the long run. Just like how most gamers today wouldn't even rate the C64 or Amiga as being in the same class of gaming hardware as the NES, most gamers in 20 years would see it as silly to even compare the 360 or PS3 to the Wii, due to them catering to such different values.
Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.
