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I'd say an opening price of $300-350 tops. If they do it right, they won't need to cut prices as soon. Just look at the Wii. 2 and a half years in and still no price cut while Sony and MS have both cut prices. I guess it kinda depends on the hardware the want to use in it, but really the only extra increase in cost I would see is Blu-Ray drive, Wi-Fi, and an upgraded CPU/GPU, and more RAM (hopefully around $200 added cost over the current $300 Pro, but in 3 years would equate to being about $300-350 to make instead of $500 like it would now). I'm not sure if SSD will be cheap enough by then to be included in any size that would actually matter. Perhaps in a year or two after the next xbox has been out they can introduce a model with SSD.