heruamon said:
My prediction is based on the performance of Fable II, and Fallout 3 on the 360...The original Mass Effect sold 2.02 million according to VGC (unless you don't trust this data), and this was a title launched in 2007, with 377k in week one. WRT to legs, that's pretty darn impressive, and the game has established itself as a top RPG franchise on the 360. I don't believe that estimating 3-4 million is pie-in-the-sky or out of bounds to expect. I DO believe Mass Effect will be an exclusive, timed or not, and I DO believe it's going to significantly top the last game...trend analysis supports that happening, based on 360 games to-date. I used Bioshock, as an example of a title that WAS ballyhooed as being so much improved on the ps3 over the original game, and the sales performance didn’t materialize, not the argument is for Bioware to invest a lot of resources to port a game, and hope for sales…if that silly on my part, then I guess I’m just a clown. Last time I checked, EA is bleeding money, and the key for any project is ROI, not some intrinsic ideal. I am not going to get into a @$#$ measuring contest wrt to LBP vs. Mass Effect, since that statistical battle will lead to me getting ban
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...I'll just be diplomatic and say great job on that game reaching the 2 million mark, and best of luck to it.Well, just focusing on your Mass Effect 2 sales prediction, I'm not sure how a 50-100% increase is possible. Very few franchises sell better with each subsequent iteration in a single generation (just look at some of the more popular ps1/2 franchise, like FF, GT, R&C, J&D, MGS, etc.), and the rare few that do don't have near as significant an increase as that (Halo 1 > Halo 2 was only a ~31% increase). I have yet to see a franchise that wasn't a sports title that has manage an increase between iterations this gen, either.
Just look at Call of Duty: World at War. Initially it was tracking far above Call of Duty 4, but it's legs have proven to be far weaker (most likely due to the quality of the title versus 4), and it is now falling below 4:
Gears of War 2 is also showing weaker legs than Gears of War, despite the much stronger opening (it's selling around 24k a week, compared to 36k a week for the originla in a similar timeframe), and it looks like Geras 2's lifetime sales will die off right around that of the first Gears', though probably a bit higher.
Of course, Gears 2's second holiday season will be the decider. The game has weaker legs because it was obviously more frontloaded than it's predecessor, and if it has a much weaker second holiday than the first Gears, it'll probably fall to right around where the first died in the end.
Edit:
Ahah! It seems I was wrong. PGR4 managed to outsell PGR3 by 19%. Of course, they do offer that PGR4/headset/XBL bundle, but I can't se that having changed things all that much.
