This is the third installment of the context clues series, each written roughly three months apart that include check-ups and analyzes current trends and reconciles them with the past.
The first two threads may be found here: Using Context Clues to Predict , and Using Context Clues to Predict 2
Just a little recap, these are the current numbers
Wii – 11.78 mil
PS3 – 4.64 mil
XB360 – 11.1 mil
A lot has happened in the last three months. E3, Wii passing XB360, as well as a slew of game announcements. This is very exciting stuff no matter which camp you belong too, so it’s a good time to be a gamer 
Before I get to the individual companies, I’d like to point out a trend that I think is extremely interesting. Consoles sold per month. The formula is (consoles sold/months on market)
|
| April '07 | June '07 | Sept ' 07 |
| Wii | 1.32 mi/mo | 1.23 mi/mo | 1.18 mi/mo |
| PS3 | .63 mi/mo | .51 mi/mo | .46 mi/mo |
| XB360 | .57 mi/mo | .53 mi/mo | .50 mi/mo |
Looking at theses numbers I find the most interesting thing is that the 360 as of the last three months at least is outselling the PS3 just barely. I’m pretty sure most people would predict the opposite. I did.
Before I continue, something I was wrong about. I must give props to RolStoppable, who commented on my UCCP2 post and said this:
“Good post, but are you really thinking that average Wii sales per month will decline in the second half of this year?
There's the holiday season and two big games, Mario and Brawl, coming out.”
I failed to take into account the holiday season and I suppose I really didn’t look at my own numbers too closely. It’s easy to criticize others’ numbers, but not as easy to criticize your own. So thank you, RolStoppable.
Back to analysis
Sony
In third we have Sony, having sold 4.64 mil consoles in 10 months on the market, it’s not as strong as some may have hoped, but still a decent showing from last gens clear winner. Cutting the 60 G sku to $499.99 boosted sales temporarily, but unfortunately what went up came right back down as the new $599.99 80 G sku became the new standard. I really want to be optimistic about this, but without a blockbuster game coming out before the holiday season, I don’t know how optimistic you can be before it reaches denial… FF13 anyone?
In an interesting note, PSP sales in Japan went up…wait…how much? Holy cow! 551%.!! Take note Sony fans, the FF series moves consoles
Microsoft
In second place, MS with the XB360. with 11.10 mil consoles sold in 22 months, it’s clear that it’s not gonna win this gen by any stretch of the imagination. As such, it’s now in a battle for second with Sony, and with more than double the consoles sold (for now), it should be interesting to see what happens in the next year. Big news for El 360. Bioshock and Madden gave it a nice boost back in late August, and with Halo coming out in a few days, MS will have thrown out all of its aces before the holiday season. Whether or not it was smart to release all three so early will be determined by sales this holiday season. I almost forgot to mention the price drop, finally. However, the full impact of it still has yet to be seen.
Here’s the real question to be asked; Will the 360 outsell the Wii the week (or couple of weeks) in America after Halo 3 comes out? I’m sure most of you have already stated your opinion on this. My view is that for one week the 360 will outsell the Wii.
Nintendo
And just barely a month into the first place position, we have the Nintendo Wii with 11.78 mil consoles sold. MP3 came out this last August, and with Mario Galaxy out Nov. 12th and the ever-so-popular SSBB coming out Dec. 3rd, Nintendo will not be relinquishing the lead any time soon. The only thing more I’d like to see Nintendo doing is developing more third party relationships and try to get a bigger and more varied library. The Wii doesn’t need its Gears of War per se, but it would be nice to have the option to play something like that on it.
With 1.18 mil consoles sold per month it sells more than the competition combined.
Also, interesting news with Smash Brothers being confirmed having online on the official site. The developers admit lagging from the get go, and no voice chat confirmed yet. Surely Nintendo fans are waiting with baited breath for some sort of announcement like that
So taking into account inflation, lunar phase, and particular alignment of the stars, here are my predictions for the end of the year, 2007;
Wii – 16.2 mil
XB360 – 13.5 mil
PS3 – 6.7 mil
There’s no need to post the typical “your numbers for X are pretty low” comments, because these are my predictions, and I’m not changing them (until my next article).
So the next step at this point is next year. This year has been decided since E3 concluded in July. Just to stay with the series though, I will post article 4 in the series about three months from now.
Thanks for reading 
Ps: Also, if you could tell me what you think of this either by PM or posting, that would be great. If you have any ideas to make the next one better, that would be fantastic as well.
Currently playing: Civ 6
