Gaming BUSINESS MODEL is changing, no more X360 sucessor

[Gh0st4lifE]

shio said:

Gh0st4lifE said:

shio said:

Retail is a very small part of PC gaming - It was only 30% of PC gaming revenue in 2007, and it should be much smaller today. This is due to the shifting of revenue to digital.

Digital and Online Revenue is increasing much, much faster than the console industry. PC's Digital Distribution Services such as Steam and Gamersgate increase over 100% yearly, and China's Online Gaming Revenue was up over 75% in 2008.

Hell, even EA's CEO came out and said PC Gaming was growing faster than teh Console Industry,

 

That's quite a claim you've got there... Let's see if you can get a source for it.

I agree with you on PC having online distribution ahead of consoles, and on the efficiency of such distribution. Retail accounts for 1/3 of a games' price. Consoles will go there too.

About Chinese PC gaming increasing 75% yoy you'd better add that China has a very specific market made of their own games and with a very specific revenue model (free or low-cost entry price, and then numerous pay-for-download contents). It is not really as if Chinese gaming was an extension of the WW market, rather a parallel universe for the moment being.

If we get back to the point, it's not PC vs Consoles, but the future of consoles.

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS131586+19-Aug-2008+BW20080819

Exclusive PCGA Study Shows PC Gaming a $10.7B Industry, Reveals
Explosive Online Growth

LEIPZIG, Germany--(Business Wire)--
The PC Gaming Alliance (PCGA) today unveiled the key findings from
its first "Horizons" Report, an exclusive research study of the PC
gaming industry worldwide. Speaking at the Games Convention
Developer's Conference in Leipzig, PCGA president Randy Stude
announced that PC gaming was a $10.7 billion industry during the year
of 2007, with retail sales accounting for just 30 percent of total
revenues. According to the report, growth was largely driven by online
revenues from Asia, the world's largest market, which is approaching
half of total worldwide sales.

Online PC gaming revenue led the way in 2007 with $4.8 billion,
nearly double the worldwide retail sales numbers for PC games. Digital
distribution sales approached $2 billion, while advertising revenues
from websites, portals, and in-game ads accounted for $800 million.
Both are expected to grow substantially as major developers and
publishers begin to adopt formal strategies to take advantage of new
online opportunities.

"Our analysis clearly shows incredible growth in online PC gaming,
proof that this industry is far stronger than anyone has reported,"
said Stude. "Today's consumers shop where they live - online."

I'll show you one better, this is from DFC:

"DFC estimates there are over 260 million PC gamers worldwide, and that should grow to close to 350 million by 2012."

And what's wrong with China?! Are you REALLY excluding China from the revenue because they don't pay for the same type of games?! LOL. Hey, let's exclude Japan too, and how about UK (they buy too much Wii Fit), or better yet, let's exclude North-America because they're the only ones that buy Xbox 360 that much.
If you were paying attention, you'd see that there are many "Chinese" games being developed in the Western world, like Star Wars: The Old republic, Battlefield Heroes, Quake Live, Battleforge and Need for Speed World Online.

 

Of 2007's 10.7 billion Total WW PC revenue

-------------------------------------------------------

Retail revenue : 30 %

Online PC gaming revenue  : 46 %

Digital distribution : 18 %

Advertising : 6 %

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Wow, interesting.

 

About DFC's numbers. Such numbers have already been published in previous studies:

http://www.edge-online.com/news/study-claims-pc-market-largest

but a PC gamer varies from a secretary playing Zuma 15 minutes per week to a no-life spending his whole income in virtual gnomes. That's not even a segment to start with.

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As for the chinese market i wouldn't take it into account yet. It's my personal opinion that they will in the end play on consoles instead of PCs. They never had the choice between PCs and consoles anyway.

Plus, they have a very peculiar relation with gaming. During the cultural revolution games were considered too individualistic and heuristic, immoral, incompatible with the communism. It's somehow tabou to play on a console, a system dedicated exclusively or almost to games.

They also produce their own games and might keep it that way the way japanese do. But unlike japanese theirs aren't exported, not yet anyway. So they don't influence the industry that much. Even their business model is unfit for the world. They are willing to pay huge amounts for online additional content and very little for the game itself.