These estimates, as imperfect as they are show that development costs have a significant impact in the types of sales numbers that most games actually achieve. One figure often quoted in trade literature is that only 3 in 10 games ever recover their cost. Can this be reconciled with the cost estimates.
I took the most conservative development cost ratio of 2 to 1 between HD and Wii and the most often quoted estimate on unit sales necessary to recover cost of 500K (HD) and 250K (Wii). I used the VG Chartz game list but included only games with sales greater than 0.0, to eliminate the pile of canceled, upcoming or rumored games that fill up the bottom of the list.
|
|
Total Games |
1m + Platinum |
500K+ Gold |
250K+ |
% Profitable |
|
PS3 |
271 |
28 |
38 |
|
14% |
|
Xbox360 |
395 |
64 |
138 |
|
35% |
|
Wii |
479 |
42 |
96 |
163 |
34% |
These figures would seem to indicate that while a few more games have been profitable on the Wii, a developer has approximately equal odds of creating a profitable game on the Xbox360 or the Wii. Only about half the bank-roll is required to try your hand on the Wii, hence its popularity with smaller and indie developers. The odds look significantly worse on the PS3 especially considering that it is generally regarded as being more expensive to develop for than the Xbox 360.
Now taking the total for all three consoles, how well do these estimates correlate to a 3/10 industry wide success rate?
|
Total Games |
Total Profitable |
% Profitable |
|
1145 |
339 |
29.6% |
The surprisingly perfect agreement means that the minimum sales estimates may be reasonable accurate.
