The reason why I believe the percieved value argument to be changable is because the greatest positive or negative factor for consoles is the word on the street or word of mouth. Its quite a significant reason why the Wii is in front and will stay in front and why the PS2 had such a commanding lead over two very similar and effective competitors. The network effect is quite an important reason to explain why Microsoft can continue to pick up a high % of internet connected gamers in spite of the fact that PSN is free as the most valuable network isn't the cheapest or the most feature packed but the one which your friends decide to use to most people.
The percieved value of a $400 PS3 now is quite likely lower than a hypothetical PS3 2 years ago. things have changed positively for both Nintendo and Microsoft and negatively for Sony and this will continue to be the case for the forseeable future. The longer Sony remains outside of the price bracket of people, the more they will begin to consider alternatives so even if they do cut the price theres the factor of people who have yet decided which console to purchase have allowed the possibility of purchasing other consoles to come into their mind.
Im not exactly sure what would happen if the PS3 recieved a price-cut to $300 tomorrow. I don't know how much pent up demand is there from people who only want a PS3 and I don't know what kind of price elasticity of demand the system has as the console price approaches the sweet spot. There is a very real factor also of people who cross shop between the two systems as they are effective substitutes we can see a lower 360 price eroding PS3 sales and vice versa. I throw up my hands at this idea because its simply too complicated to even guess at the dynamic without hard data.
In terms of strategy, Microsoft has many options available to them. They can not only cut the price, but they can add features such as wireless or additional flash memory for the Arcade which may alter the balance of the SKUs quite significantly. They are playing their cards close to the chest here which is an incredible pain in the behind. They did give us something which is they are gunning for 2nd place and they will probably go to great lengths to secure that placing. This is why I predicted Microsoft would outsell the PS3 in the last holiday season.
Tease.
