I hear a lot of people say that exclusives dont matter, but really that is what defines the console. It is true that having the most games for your system will make you the winner for sure (see PS2 with 90% of the games)... But exclusives kept the Gamecube profitable for Nintendo.
Sony can't beat the Wii on innovational games and price. Unless Nintendo screws up they will end up with 50% or more (I am predicting 55%) of the market.
Now they can compete with MS on graphics and multimedia center stuff, they are about equal, but MS has a several huge advatages:
1) Head start and 7M lead.
2) Price
3) They are profitable. So they can reduce the price at any time to put the hurt on Sony.
We are already seeing a lot of change from Pre-E3. Wii is getting more exclusives, also more multiplatform games that use the remote in some way to make the Wii game different (some better than others of course).
Previous PS2/PS3 exclusives games being announced for 360 as well.
If MS was selling well in Japan Sony would have no chance to get out of 3rd, but this gives them a chance for 2nd.
BUT, If they lose FF, DQ, and KH to Wii or 360. Even if they are multiplatform, it is over. Even worse if they go exclusive to another system.
If you want the high end graphics and multimedia capabilities then you can get a 360 for a lot less. If you want new innovative games plus Nintendo games, then you got the Wii at a great price. Hell you can get both for less than the PS3.
Sony needs to cut the price by $200-$300 right now. Take the loss and stop the market share bleeding. If they don't it will be over pretty soon.
After XMas Wii could have a 5M lead over them in each market and that is the point of no return imo.
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