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nordlead said:

probably not. If you look at the following graph ending Dec 27th, 08

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=------&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39516&end=39810&weekly=1

you can see that the hardware sits at ~27m for X360 and ~19.2m for PS3. Considering the yearly total (below) the X360 would need an additional 2m sold YoY, and the PS3 would need an aditional 0.5m YoY.

Currently, the X360 is doing better than last year. However, I don't think the X360 will do an additional 2m extra, so I feel fairly confident in saying it won't.

The PS3 is doing slightly worse (200k worse), so it just needs to pick up ~700k units. This could go either way, but I'm leaning towards just shy (talking 100k's) as it did very poorly over the christmas period.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 05th Jan 2008 to 27th Dec 2008:

Console PS3 X360
Total
10,359,672
11,104,995

Good numbers here, but according to VGChartz numbers on front page, PS3 needs 9Mil to hit 30 and 360 needs 11Mil to hit 40, right?

Maybe I'm confused...

It looks like unless they both underperform against the '08 numbers you listed here, they would both make it.  Given the numbers last year at this time, 360 is tracking ahead, and PS3 behind.  Did I miss something?

*Edit* I'm an idiot caught my mistake.  will leave it up here for appropriate public ridiculing.