Why the PS3 will ultimately succumb to the 360...

[couchmonkey]

kn said:

couchmonkey said:
But, as I have asked of the original XBox, is it really a win if Microsoft buys it?

Even if MS makes a profit for the rest of the 360's lifetime, it will have to make some $3 billion to make up for what it lost in the first two years.

I do think 360 is likely to beat PS3 in terms of lifetime hardware sales, but I think it's going to be close.

I think you are missing the point. Microsoft is into this whole "world domination" thing. The set-top box or whatever you want to call the "living room home entertainment appliance" is going to happen. The Xbox, while primarily a games machine, is part of that larger picture. Operating systems on PCs, streaming media, web browsers, and so on are all part of this strategy. MS can not afford to cede control of the living room to the likes of Sony, Cisco, or anyone else and I suspect they aren't looking at a $3B loss in the entertainment arena as a loss per se. I think they are looking at it more from a "entrenching themselves" position. Imagine, for a moment, that the PS3 was very successful and was widely adopted as a "living room appliance". Once established it will be hard to dislodge...

I do get the idea that Microsoft's win condition is "win or disrupt the set-top box market", and by that measure Xbox has done its job, for sure, but now that Sony's set-top box ambitions are going down the crapper, what is the new measure for 360 success?

Ultimately, we may never agree on this because I think the set-top box is a fantasy, and Wii's massive success versus 360 and PS3 is just one more proof.  I could be totally wrong, but Nintendo has at least delayed the video game console-derived set-top box for another four years.