Moore's Law, PS3 and next gen

[Kytiara]

Here's how I see it. Assume for the moment that Sony is correct and the PS3 will have a 10 year shelf life. Lets also assume that the Wii and the Next Nintendo Console will each have a 5 year shelf life. That means in 10 years, we'll see the end of the PS3 and the Wii 2. Now, also make the assumption that the Wii 2 has a similar cost to the Wii. That means in 10 years, someone buying a PS3 and someone buying both the Wii and Wii 2 would pay around the same cost for hardware.

Now where I think Sony is making their mistake is in trying to play to the Cutting edge tech crowd. The general public doesn't go out and buy the latest and greatest, they buy the second or third latest and greatest. They do this because, lets say the Best of a certain product costs 100$. The second best will probably cost 70-80$, and the third best is already down to 50$. In the average consumers mind, that third best is looking pretty tasty. Still pretty kick ass, but half the cost.

Tech companies recoup development costs by charging the early adopters a premium, and what Sony is doing is exactly that. Making everyone an early adopter in their new tech, instead of using the 2nd or 3rd best hardware and charging their customers appropriately.

Anyway, thats how I see it. I have nothing against Sony or the PS3, I just think that they made a foolish choice. I realize that both the PS1 and PS2 are liable to have 10 year shelf lives, but they both started out at half the cost the Ps3 has, and that helps a lot.

They lasted this long (I think the NES managed it as well) largely in part to such a huge player base. A company can't just claim that they'll still be selling a product 10 years down the road and not back it up with sales. If they've only sold say 25 million in 5 years, how are they going to justify selling it for another 5 years if there are 1 or more new systems that look as good or better and have that new car smell to them, especially if third party support is sporadic and less than complete as tends to happen to third place consoles.

Anyway, I think Sony made a gamble and it hasn't payed off. I think they should admit their mistake (at least internally, no need to piss off investors) and make plans for the next gen. Once the new box is on its feet, cut the ps3 loose and accept whatever gains/losses they've made. This is pretty much what Nintendo and Microsoft did with the GC and xbox. No point dragging it out for 10 years if it'll only marginally sell well.