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I would say I agree with all your points, but you are missing the most important argument for why the Xbox 360 doesn't appeal to casual gamers:

It costs too much.

Edit: to expand, I think it will do better when it's cost comes down as well.  however, $200 is mass market price, not $250.  It's going to be another year and a half before the 360 hits that sweet spot more than likely.  The Wii has managed to bypass that mass market barrier of $200 by having a pack-in game, but it will be a while before the 360 reaches that.  Remember unless they start packing a memory unit the core is still a worthless piece of crap.