mike_intellivision said:
I think you have just described why Cloud Computing is a dream of someone whose head is in the clouds. Getting back to Blu Ray, I think that it will plateau at a quarter of the market or less. The economic downturn is hurting big electronics purchases -- and a large HD TV is what is needed to truly enjoy Blu Ray. By the time things get going again, a new tech will be ready to take its place.
Mike from Morgantown
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And it would have to start from zero, just like BD did years ago. But by then BD would be cheap enough to be a no-brainer, considering its back-compatibility too, to choose it instead of an old DVD drive only a few bucks cheaper.
What I think, instead, is that BD drives have good chances to become widespread, but BD contents and BD blanks could have a less pervasive spread: people would have the CHOICE between BD and DVD and would choose BD mainly for movies heavily relying on effects and photography, while could happily settle for good enough and cheaper DVD's otherwise. At the same time BD blanks woud be used instead of DVD's only when necessary. And if we remember, we had two major removable standards since even before CD-R became commodity: first we had floppy and iomega Zip (*), then floppy and CD-R/RW, now we have CD-R/RW and DVD+-R/RW, having DVD and BD instead of a single standard wouldn't be anything new. And let's not forget DVD struggled even longer than BD with HD-DVD in an internal fratricide format war between "plus" and "minus", a war settled with a tie and the final dual format drives success that allowed DVD to take-off on PC's.
(*) let's not count the old 5.25" and 3.5" floppies coexistence, their respective capacities were in the same order of magnitude, they were redundant as they didn't cater for different purposes, so eventually only 3.5 survived.







