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hard to say but it will take some time. let's say 2012 most of the PCs sold will have BluRay then it still takes some time untill BluRay actually replaces the DVD, another 1-2 years I guess.

 

2013 - 2014 BluRay MIGHT become a standard format. But Download-speeds won't slow down, that is for sure. BluRay will never be as big as the DVD, there are far more options like Download or Flash



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...